Returning the Favor and other Slices of Life

Returning the Favor
Returning the Favor
Now Available on Smashwords for Kindle and other ebook readers!

Monday, November 05, 2007

You Decide - Conclusion

Let's start by my saying that I think this is the best-played hand by Jim all night.

As I was thinking about the call ($68 to me, about $105 in the pot already) I looked back at the board and thought about what he could have. Board was Ah-6d-7d.

Best Case: A-J, A-10, A-9

Worst Case: 6-6, 7-7, A-7, 6-7 suited

Most Likely - Ad-Xd, Kd-Xd, 8x-9x, 4x-5x, two random diamonds

Least Likely - Ace-rag, A-6 (one of these is very bad, one of these is very good for me, but both are exceedingly unlikely)

So I thought about the hands he could have and figured that I was probably ahead of 60% of his possible holdings. Note that I never for a minute put him on Aces or A-K, or any pocket pair 9-9 or higher for that matter. If Jim had any of those holdings he wouldn't have limped in late position in a straddled hand with a million other people limping already, so I figured it was about 99% unlikely that he had any of those hands.

So since I figured I was ahead of around 2/3 of the hands he could possibly hold, I made the call.

He tabled 8d-9d for the open-ended straight flush draw, and I was drawing dead after the 5s on the turn. The 5d on the river was just the icing on the cake.

I really do think this was an excellent play on both our parts. As Special K said, "you got your money in ahead. You weren't the favorite, but you were ahead." And if I'm not going to be willing to put my money in ahead, I shouldn't be playing. Jim made the best possible move, ensuring that he was going to get the greatest possible value for his hand, because if he just check-calls the flop there, I'm done if another diamond hits, and might not invest much more if a 5 or 10 hits. I'm not sure I have that flop bet in my arsenal, but it's a good move.

I still think it wouldn't have been a huge mistake for me to make the laydown there, but I made a read, stuck with it, and was correct. The next two cards sucked out loud, but that's poker.

1 comment:

BamBam said...

The making and breaking of any great player.
"I made my read and stuck with it."

I also think you both played the hand as well as it could be done. Nothing wrong with good poker.
(except the losing!)

My new page is up and running. Hopefully you'll stop by from time to time.